@chrisnelder You seem to make a confusion and ignore both my points 0 and 1 (even though you mean to adress 1 later on, but you don't really: you continue speaking about our current position, and do not give much data about our direction). The confusion: pathways are not primarily about Global Warming Levels, but about a set of socio-economico-political hypotheses leading (through models) to CO2-equivalent emissions then leading (through models) to GWL.
Add 0 : you *cannot* distinguish between pathways in 2026 by looking at GWL, since their uncertainty intervals all overlap!