@BrKloeckner OK now we're sort of making progress. Interesting choice of citation--note the references there to the work of Ritchie on the implausibility of RCP8.5 -- that's our show's producer, and we discussed that seminal paper in Ep. 49 https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-49-climate-science-part-5-business-usual/

I am quite familiar with all of the cited sources.

As that article notes, "Estimates of future emissions under current policies tend to most closely match or fall slightly BELOW those of the middle-of-the-road SSP2–4.5 scenario"