In previous years, I published two “fediverse tech roadmap” posts:

• Fediverse tech roadmap 2024
• Fediverse tech roadmap 2025

However, I didn’t publish such post this year because not much has happened in 2025. Many problems I talked about require complex solutions, but unfortunately proposed solutions are often very limited or lead to centralization. Or worse, there is no solution but only an imitation of work. I don’t want to write about that.

I saw a thread today where ATProto ecosystem was compared to #ActivityPub. Things are happening in the Atmosphere, but not in Fediverse. MAU graphs are flat. What’s going on?

There are multiple factors at play, but I think fake activity may be the biggest contributor. Trivial developments presented as breakthroughs. Features that already exist somewhere in Fediverse presented as new inventions. Vaporware. Specs written by people who have no idea how to implement them. Working groups that do nothing but meetings.

Real work is ignored, competent developers see that and quit.

We need to fix this.

For my part, I will continue to document #Fediverse development at @weekinfediverse@mitra.social. But this newsletter doesn’t have much impact.