For me, at least. Finally moved my desktop off Windows 10 and on to CachyOS. Things just… work. Finding applications to install via AUR is easy, gaming is great. The only thing I’m missing is Fusion360 but I didn’t use it too much to begin with. Happy to be Microsoft-free. Several friends have switched off of Windows as well which is great to see. I’ve really been enjoying Arch (btw) I have CachyOS on my laptop and also in a VM which is nice to have the same desktop experience on all my devices. Looking forward to the road ahead!

Go back 20 years. See how many times this prediction has been made 🤣🤣 The only shift now is Microsoft shitting the bed so hard that people don't want to deal with them. The difference this time is the MacBook Neo. People would gladly pay Apple $600 for a working machine WITH support and stores everywhere to get help if they have hardware issues. It's the new iPhone business model. They'll be taking more desktop market share than people even imagine on the price point alone.

But the thing with anything that involves network effect (like any os adoption) is that the growth is very slow at first, but it grows faster and faster as more people get in. We used to be grouped along with "others" in charts, then came the "counted with less than 1%" mark, and it took a long time. Then the 1% milestone, then 2%, much faster than from not counted to counted, then 3%, faster than it moved from 1 to 2. Now stats vary from 3 to 5 %, depending on the source. It's getting really fast, and will grow even faster. This is a very significant difference

I feel like I'm insane for having to constantly reassure people on this fact, but... LINUX IS THE MOST DEPLOYED OS ON THIS PLANET Desktops are just software on top of Linux. The OS itself is superfluous. It's in your TV, router, car, toothbrush...etc. Who uses what for desktop matters very little except to the people making the desktop experience. The only thing on the horizon that is going to make a huge dent in the numbers you see reported on Steam, are Valve's new hardware. Meanwhile, many EU government operations are switching to Linux as fast as they can move their little fingers, but you won't see that reflected on the stats you're paying attention to.

That reminds me of something I read once: If every copy of Windows were to magically disappear, some people would be annoyed. If every copy of Linux were to magically disappear, it would be utter chaos and absolutely nothing would work.

That's just not true. Most ATMs still run on Windows. There is a lot of industrial machinery running Windows 98 or XP to this day. A lot of POS devices too. Almost all accounting is done on Windows. The amount of chaos if it disappeared would be immense, it would probably be on the same order of magnitude as the last pandemic in terms of immediate economic impact as businesses have to manically switch to alternatives, and hundreds or thousands of people would die from financial chaos alone. Linux is probably still worse because it would mean that more than half of smartphones are suddenly bricked, literally all of the internet just stops working, and a shitton of industrial automation stuff is gone.

All of the things you mentioned are annoying level problems.

ATMs

Card payment should still work, ATMs are more of a footnote in today’s world. I can’t even remember the last time I used one. If I were to use one and it didn’t worked it would be annoying.

There is a lot of industrial machinery running Windows 98 or XP to this day.

And there are lots that don’t. Plus, wine has excellent support for old windows versions, I would be very surprised if something didn’t just worked. So there would be some downtime while people annoyingly set things up with wine.

A lot of POS devices too.

And a lot of POS don’t, the ones that do would have to change OS, an annoyance.

Almost all accounting is done on Windows.

The ones that don’t would receive lots of new clients, and the rest would leave clients annoyed while adapting.

The amount of chaos if it disappeared would be immense

I think you’re probably exaggerating the proportions, nearly 100% of the hardware that runs Windows runs Linux. Yes, there would be some chaos until things migrate, but there are alternatives that are reachable and usable.

Linux is probably still worse because it would mean that more than half of smartphones are suddenly bricked,

That’s an annoyance. It’s not just some phones, it’s absolutely every network connected device that is not a Windows or apple thing. If you Google something on your phone yo go through possibly 20 different Linux devices back and forth.

literally all of the internet just stops working

This is the big one, removing Linux menas breaking the internet (and most intranets). And it’s not breaking one thing or another, it’s breaking every single internet service, the ATMs in your windows example wouldn’t work, nor would any PoS, since they usually depend on inventory management and card connectivity.

And it’s not a “until people reinstall their system” deal, it’s breaking in an essentially unrepairable way. There’s a very high chance that outside of a very small subset of devices there’s just no alternative to Linux. That’s the difference, Windows disappearing is a hiccup while things adapt, Linux disappearing is chaos without a foreseeable solution, 90% of electronics become e-waste.