Simon Wren-Lewis

This week's post: Idiot Wind https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/idiot-wind.html
With a fool at the helm fascist overreach is a constant danger, and the UK government and US opposition may end up benefiting from Trump’s attack on Iran. Those that die in this pointless war will not get the chance to be lucky

This week's post: Idiot Wind https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/idiot-wind.html
There is a desperate desire in the mainstream media to pretend that Trump isn’t a fool, but instead to treat him like just another US President. This media’s reaction to fascism in the US is to pretend it is not there.

Y'days post: Idiot Wind https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/idiot-wind.html
In any sane world the deadly foolishness of Trump and the dangerous nonsense coming from the right wing press would be regarded as some idiot wind that we needed to shelter from but at the same time we could laugh at.

New post: Idiot Wind
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/idiot-wind.html
What Trump’s pointless war against Iran tells us about the US government, the UK political right and the mainstream media in both countries.

This week's post: Why Gorton and Denton is still a good result for Reform https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-gorton-and-denton-is-still-good.html
The anti-right wing vote needs a strong rather than collapsing Labour vote, because it is highly unlikely that socially liberal parties can defeat the right without it.

This week's post: Why Gorton and Denton is still a good result for Reform https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-gorton-and-denton-is-still-good.html
If the Gorton and Denton by-election result was repeated in a General Election the right wing majority would be over 200 seats. We need a socially liberal Labour gov. to stop Reform.

Y'days post: Why Gorton and Denton is still a good result for Reform https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-gorton-and-denton-is-still-good.html
If the Gorton and Denton by-election result was repeated in a General Election, with perfect tactical voting on both the right and among social liberal parties, the right would win easily

New post: Why Gorton and Denton is still a good result for Reform
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/03/why-gorton-and-denton-is-still-good.html
Some say that the Gorton and Denton result shows how to defeat Reform. It doesn't. The right wing vote was higher, and if repeated in a General Election the right would be very hard to beat.

After the Gorton and Denton result, rather than retweet this week's post it seems more appropriate to retweet a post from two week's ago. https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/how-labour-makes-fighting-right-wing.html
It's not complicated. If Labour acts like a socially conservative party, socially liberal voters will not vote Labour

This week's post: Budgets are about much more than fiscal sustainability https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/budgets-are-about-much-more-than-fiscal.html
Fiscal rules and institutions have helped reduce the problem of deficit bias. We now need to focus on incentivising politicians to create a more efficient tax system.

Y'days post: Budgets are about much more than fiscal sustainability https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/budgets-are-about-much-more-than-fiscal.html
That the Chancellor had to put up taxes in the last Budget shows that fiscal rules are working. We should be focusing on the many other areas of fiscal policy that need attention.

New post: Budgets are about much more than fiscal sustainability
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/budgets-are-about-much-more-than-fiscal.html
The impression that the OBR forecast sets fiscal policy is because politicians and the media have ignored or downplayed other key aspects of what fiscal policy should be about.

This week's post: How Labour makes fighting right wing populism harder https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/how-labour-makes-fighting-right-wing.html
It is highly unlikely that a combination of socially liberal parties (Greens, LibDems and nationalists) can win a majority of seats in the House of Commons, even if they form a pact.

This week's post: How Labour makes fighting right wing populism harder https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/how-labour-makes-fighting-right-wing.html
Judging from both her rhetoric and actions Shabana Mahmood, Labour’s home secretary, is as committed as McSweeney was to the strategy that has been such a failure for Labour.

Y'days post: How Labour makes fighting right wing populism harder https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/how-labour-makes-fighting-right-wing.html
Labour sounding and acting like Reform on immigration and asylum was likely to increase rather than decrease the Reform vote and reduce the Labour vote, which is what has happened.

New post: How Labour makes fighting right wing populism harder
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/how-labour-makes-fighting-right-wing.html
'Tilting left' won't help. Labour has lost much of its base not so much because it hasn’t been left wing enough in economic terms, but more because it has sounded and acted in an illiberal way.

This week's post: Fiscal watchdogs, pluralist democracy, technocracy and evidence based policy https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/fiscal-watchdogs-pluralist-democracy.html
The OBR could follow the Netherlands fiscal council and cost opposition policy proposals before a General Election. Farage would hate it.

This week's post: Fiscal watchdogs, pluralist democracy, technocracy and evidence based policy https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/02/fiscal-watchdogs-pluralist-democracy.html
One of Victor Orban’s first acts as Hungary's populist leader was to abolish their fiscal watchdog. Nigel Farage is giving serious thought to abolishing the OBR.