John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
mastodon
4.5.9
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him
Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO.
All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
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Joined July 27, 2020
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 30, 2026
@SusiArnott You're welcome a million.
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 28, 2026
What’s a zettajoule?
With approximations and back-of-an-envelope stuff that will make you cry.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/28/whats-a-zettajoule/
With approximations and back-of-an-envelope stuff that will make you cry.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/28/whats-a-zettajoule/
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 18, 2026
Centennial Observing Stations State of Recognition Report
Long station series are vital for monitoring long-term environmental change. The report recognises 474 long-term observing stations worldwide including 10 that have been operating for more than 250 years.
https://library.wmo.int/records/item/58048-centennial-observing-stations-state-of-recognition-report-2025
Long station series are vital for monitoring long-term environmental change. The report recognises 474 long-term observing stations worldwide including 10 that have been operating for more than 250 years.
https://library.wmo.int/records/item/58048-centennial-observing-stations-state-of-recognition-report-2025
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 13, 2026
Not waving but drowning
When climate sceptics outsource their handwaving to AI the results are... predictable.
[With lovingly crafted 100% human MS Paint original artwork.]
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/12/not-waving-but-drowning/
When climate sceptics outsource their handwaving to AI the results are... predictable.
[With lovingly crafted 100% human MS Paint original artwork.]
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/12/not-waving-but-drowning/
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 12, 2026
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 07, 2026
@Brad_Rosenheim Yes! Monitoring of tipping points and earth system feedbacks would be good to do.
I looked through the 374 page tipping points report (https://global-tipping-points.org/) that came out before COP last year and saw one example of something actually being measured. Most of the tipping points remained somewhat nebulous, modelled risks, schematics etc.
Occasionally, a paper will come out with a suggestion, but I don't know of anyone doing routine monitoring of tipping points, at least not the way we monitor global temperature, say. Probably ignorance on my part.
However, it seems difficult too. Part of the difficulty is the availability of obs. Part of the difficulty is communication. Part of the difficulty is time scales which can be long with important changes stretched out over decades. Part of the difficulty is that, in many cases, we won't know when we've passed a tipping point even if we're watching it very closely.
I looked through the 374 page tipping points report (https://global-tipping-points.org/) that came out before COP last year and saw one example of something actually being measured. Most of the tipping points remained somewhat nebulous, modelled risks, schematics etc.
Occasionally, a paper will come out with a suggestion, but I don't know of anyone doing routine monitoring of tipping points, at least not the way we monitor global temperature, say. Probably ignorance on my part.
However, it seems difficult too. Part of the difficulty is the availability of obs. Part of the difficulty is communication. Part of the difficulty is time scales which can be long with important changes stretched out over decades. Part of the difficulty is that, in many cases, we won't know when we've passed a tipping point even if we're watching it very closely.
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 07, 2026
For a rainy day
Has global warming accelerated? Why? How much? How do we know? What does it all mean? etc. With hand-drawn illustrations, dodgy metaphors, and a complete lack of clear answers.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/07/for-a-rainy-day/
Has global warming accelerated? Why? How much? How do we know? What does it all mean? etc. With hand-drawn illustrations, dodgy metaphors, and a complete lack of clear answers.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/07/for-a-rainy-day/
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 06, 2026
A small update to my long and unjustifiably profane blog post on the rollercoaster that is global temperature and the interpretations of its wrigglin' innards.
ENSO is coming
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/07/04/an-egregious-encomium-or-execration-of-the-evanescent-ephemeral-and-effervescent-made-eternal-and-enduring-through-the-excretions-of-an-eejit/#:~:text=the%20broader%20discourse.-,2026%2D03%2D06,-%3A%20I%20should%20probably
ENSO is coming
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2025/07/04/an-egregious-encomium-or-execration-of-the-evanescent-ephemeral-and-effervescent-made-eternal-and-enduring-through-the-excretions-of-an-eejit/#:~:text=the%20broader%20discourse.-,2026%2D03%2D06,-%3A%20I%20should%20probably
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 06, 2026
OK, that's one glowing AI article too many in Nature and one cosy fireside editorial too many from Science.
Can we have a prestige journal with a bit of attitude please, a little bite, a hint of tooth. Articles I want to read not shred. Papers the authors might actually have enjoyed writing.
Can we have a prestige journal with a bit of attitude please, a little bite, a hint of tooth. Articles I want to read not shred. Papers the authors might actually have enjoyed writing.
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 05, 2026
Q. What do CGI cigarette butts and global temperature estimates have in common?
A. Verisimilitude.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/03/verisimilitude/
A. Verisimilitude.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/03/verisimilitude/
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 03, 2026
Word of the day is verisimilitude
On data, reality, realism, the texture of reality and, yes, verisimilitude.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/03/verisimilitude/
On data, reality, realism, the texture of reality and, yes, verisimilitude.
https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/03/verisimilitude/
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Mar 02, 2026
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Feb 23, 2026
How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?
Open review until 11 March
https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-825/
Open review until 11 March
https://essd.copernicus.org/preprints/essd-2025-825/
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Jan 12, 2024
@steve I agree absolutely. I think that to do that, we need to communicate uncertainty in global temperature before we get into that situation.
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Jan 11, 2024
@steve One can imagine the confusion caused by replying to the question "have we passed 1.5C?" by saying "maybe" for ten years. Or more.
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Jan 11, 2024
@steve No journalist would of course. An uncertainty range would confuse their audience. But not providing one misleads them. Tomorrow, five other groups will release their numbers and they will all be different. It's the work of one sentence to clarify all that.
Your suggestion for a fuzzy threshold is an interesting one (and thanks for the kind words about the blog post). It acknowledges the uncertainty, which is great. Whether it's practical, I don't know.
Your suggestion for a fuzzy threshold is an interesting one (and thanks for the kind words about the blog post). It acknowledges the uncertainty, which is great. Whether it's practical, I don't know.
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Jan 11, 2024
@steve Simple clear messaging *that's in line with the underlying science* matters. The 1.48C in the lede is missing an uncertainty estimate too.
The difficulty for the plot is, which pre-industrial baseline do you pick? The dataset Copernicus produce only goes back to 1940, so the BBC would have to choose a method for converting to a pre-industrial baseline. There are multiple methods. The method you choose changes the message.
See https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2023/11/22/will-we-reach-1-5c-in-2023-or-2c-on-tuesday/ for a more detailed analysis
The difficulty for the plot is, which pre-industrial baseline do you pick? The dataset Copernicus produce only goes back to 1940, so the BBC would have to choose a method for converting to a pre-industrial baseline. There are multiple methods. The method you choose changes the message.
See https://diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2023/11/22/will-we-reach-1-5c-in-2023-or-2c-on-tuesday/ for a more detailed analysis
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John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
John Kennedy
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
Climate scientist, diagram monkey, probabilistic historian and scientific illustrator. Occasional glass engraver, embroiderer, and computer 3d stuff-er. He/him Currently self-employed and working on a short contract with the WMO. All views and opinions are my own. This is not, sadly, a promise of novelty: it's a disclaimer. Though, on reflection, it sounds slightly megalomaniacal. All views? Really?! No, just the ones I express.
fediscience.org
@micefearboggis@fediscience.org
·
Jan 11, 2024
@steve Uncertainty in the pre-industrial baseline is roughly a quarter of a degree, varies with season and isn't well constrained for daily temperatures.
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