Two new studies conclude that stabilizing long-term #climate risks will require sustained net-negative carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions for centuries.
Approaching the problem from distinct perspectives—legal and technological feasibility on the one hand, and #economic optimization under #uncertainty on the other—the research converges on a consistent message: reaching net zero is not enough.
The former study examines how to halt the growth of delayed climate impacts, such as sea-level rise and permafrost thaw, that continue to intensify even if global temperatures stabilize at 1.5°C.
Following the 2025 advisory opinion of the International Court of Justice affirming states' obligations to prevent significant climate harm, the authors assess what would be required to stop these impacts from worsening.
Their conclusion is clear: net-zero emissions alone will not stabilize these long-term damages.
The second study addresses how uncertainty in the Earth system should shape optimal climate #policy.
Widely used integrated assessment modeling approaches seldom account for uncertainty when designing optimal climate policies.
Crucially, the results indicate that sustained, potentially century-long net-negative emissions are needed, not to offset temporary overshoot, but to reduce long-term Earth system risks.
https://phys.org/news/2026-03-centuries-net-negative-emissions-required.html
Paper by Gasser et al. (2026):
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-69896-x
Paper by Bednar et al. (2026):
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ae34ca